Trans Mountain export diversification
HM-INT-0045
More Canadian oil could move to Asia as Trans Mountain adds capacity
Trans Mountain's CEO has said Asia, led by China, could eventually take roughly 70 percent of Canadian crude exports as the system adds capacity. New market evidence now strengthens that thesis: Chinese independent refiners are actively buying Canadian heavy crude through Trans Mountain as they seek alternatives to constrained Iranian and Russian supply.
30-second version
What changed?
Trans Mountain currently has about 890,000 barrels per day of capacity and reached full capacity in June 2026.
The company expects optimization work to add about 90,000 barrels per day in late 2026 and another roughly 210,000 barrels per day by the end of 2028.
Chinese independent refiners are now buying Canadian heavy crude through Trans Mountain as alternative supplies become harder to secure.
The CEO's 70 percent Asia forecast is still a forecast, but actual Asian buying provides stronger evidence that export diversification is happening.
Confirmed facts
What the source record confirms.
These details come from the supporting records listed with this Intelligence Record.
Current capacity
The Trans Mountain system has roughly 890,000 barrels per day of capacity and reached full utilization for the first time in June 2026.
Near-term optimization
Trans Mountain expects optimization work to add roughly 90,000 barrels per day of capacity in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Further expansion
A further increase of roughly 210,000 barrels per day is expected by the end of 2028, subject to project execution and operating conditions.
Asia forecast
Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki said Asia, primarily China, could eventually account for around 70 percent of Canadian crude exports. That remains a market forecast, not a guaranteed destination share.
Chinese refiners are buying Canadian crude
Reuters reported on September 10 that Chinese independent refiners were buying Canadian heavy crude through Trans Mountain while searching for alternatives to constrained Iranian and Russian barrels.
Hoffos | Menzies interpretation
Why this may matter.
This section is analysis. It is separated from the confirmed facts above.
- 01
Grande Prairie does not sit on the Trans Mountain route, but Alberta producers benefit when Western Canadian crude has more buyers and more transportation options.
- 02
The September 10 buying evidence matters because it moves the story from export-capacity theory toward actual market behaviour. Asian refiners are demonstrating willingness to buy Canadian heavy crude when global supply conditions shift.
- 03
Better export access can support producer cash flow, capital planning and long-term investment appetite. Those effects can eventually reach drilling, service activity, trucking, industrial occupancy and land demand in northern Alberta.
- 04
The real estate signal remains indirect. The key question is whether improved export access actually translates into stronger producer capital spending and service-company growth.
Monitoring
What we are watching next.
Completion and actual utilization of the late-2026 optimization work.
Progress toward the additional 2028 expansion capacity.
The share of Trans Mountain exports moving to Asia versus the United States.
Whether Chinese and other Asian refiners continue buying Canadian heavy crude after current supply disruptions ease.
Western Canadian producer capital budgets, drilling activity and industrial demand in northern Alberta.
WCS differentials and other market-access indicators that show whether additional pipeline capacity improves realized pricing.
Sources
Read the supporting records.
Connected Intelligence
Continue with the part connected to your decision.
Review and expiry rule
This record stays dated.
Review when the late-2026 optimization enters service, when expansion timing changes, or when export destinations, Asian buying or producer capital programs materially shift.
Important information
This Intelligence Record is general energy, economic and real estate information, not securities, investment or financial advice. Export-share forecasts and future capacity additions are forward-looking and subject to change.
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